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The Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy, created by Italian financial coach Carmine, also known as "Aim Ways", is designed to reduce asset correlation and improve portfolio stability. Named in tribute to the Twitter/X user Odd-Stats it combines stocks for growth, bonds for stability, and gold for risk hedging.
With a 47% allocation to stocks, 43% to bonds, and 10% to commodities, it aims for long-term returns with lower drawdowns, making it suitable for high-risk investors seeking strong returns while managing volatility.
The backtesting period is limited by the inception date of Total International (ex US) Bonds (TOTINTLBONDS.X): Oct 2, 1995.
A quick overview of the assets within the portfolio, its performance and main metrics.
The portfolio consists of 6 asset classes.
| Name / Ticker | Type | Currency | Inception | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ.X | Asset Class | USD | Feb 5, 1971 | 22% |
MSCI USA Minimum Volatility USMINVOL.X | Asset Class | USD | May 31, 1988 | 15% |
US Real Estate (REIT) USREIT.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 31, 1971 | 10% |
Total International (ex US) Bonds TOTINTLBONDS.X | Asset Class | USD | Oct 2, 1995 | 23% |
Intermediate-Term Treasury MTTREASURY.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1870 | 20% |
Gold GOLD.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1791 | 10% |
The backtest spans over a period of 30 years. With an annual return of 9.53% for Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy, the cumulative return over that period amounts to 1386%.
| Portfolio Score | Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy |
|---|---|
| Portfolio Score |
| Returns | Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy |
|---|---|
| Month-to-Date | 1.54% |
| Year-to-Date | 4.57% |
| 3M | 1.73% |
| 6M | 3.78% |
| Annualized Return (3Y) | 9.88% |
| Annualized Return (5Y) | 8.68% |
| Annualized Return (10Y) | 8.18% |
| Annualized Return (20Y) | 8.85% |
| Annualized Return (All, 29.6Y) | 9.53% |
| Risk | Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy |
|---|---|
| Annual Volatility | 8.32% |
| Max Drawdown | -23.76% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.14 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.65 |
| Adjusted Sortino Ratio | 1.17 |
With a projected annual return (CAGR) of 9.53% and an initial investment of $10,000, Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy would have the following projected capital growth over the next 50 years.
| Year | Starting Capital | Ending Capital | Total Gain | Avg Monthly Gain | Cumulative Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | $10,953 | $953 | $79 | 9.5% | |
| 5 | $15,764 | $17,266 | $1,502 | $125 | 72.7% |
| 10 | $24,850 | $27,218 | $2,368 | $197 | 172% |
| 15 | $39,174 | $42,907 | $3,733 | $311 | 329% |
| 20 | $61,754 | $67,639 | $5,885 | $490 | 576% |
| 50 | $947,664 | $1,037,976 | $90,312 | $7,526 | 10,280% |
A detailed look at the returns of the portfolio.
| Portfolio | All (29.6Y) | 20Y | 10Y | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy | 9.53% | 8.85% | 8.18% | 8.68% | 9.88% | 12.3% |
| Year | Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy |
|---|---|
| 1995 | 4.22% |
| 1996 | 17.21% |
| 1997 | 9.38% |
| 1998 | 25.13% |
| 1999 | 22.96% |
| 2000 | 1.78% |
| 2001 | -1.61% |
| 2002 | -1.56% |
| 2003 | 21.44% |
| 2004 | 11.32% |
| Portfolio | Positive Years | Negative Years | Positive Ratio | Best Return Years | Worst Return Years |
| Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy | 27 | 4 | 87.10% | 31 | 31 |
Let's analyze how much risk the portfoliohas.
A drawdown represents the period of decline an investor experiences between a portfolio's peak (new high) and its subsequent low, also known as the valley (before it begins to recover). The table below highlights the five largest drawdowns encountered by the portfolio.
| Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown | Start | Valley | # Months | End | # Months | # Months | Chart |
| -23.76% | 2008-05-19 | 2009-03-09 | 10 | 2009-10-08 | 7 | 17 | |
| -20.15% | 2021-12-31 | 2022-10-14 | 9 | 2023-12-27 | 14 | 24 | |
| -15.88% | 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-23 | 1 | 2020-07-01 | 3 | 4 | |
| -14.84% | 2000-09-05 | 2002-10-09 | 25 | 2003-06-05 | 8 | 33 | |
| -9.13% | 1998-07-21 | 1998-08-31 | 1 | 1998-11-10 | 2 | 4 | |
| -7.62% | 2000-03-27 | 2000-05-23 | 2 | 2000-07-14 | 2 | 4 | |
| -7.56% | 2018-08-30 | 2018-12-24 | 4 | 2019-02-05 | 1 | 5 | |
| -6.93% | 2025-02-20 | 2025-04-08 | 2 | 2025-05-12 | 1 | 3 | |
| -6.79% | 1997-10-08 | 1998-01-09 | 3 | 1998-03-24 | 2 | 5 | |
| -5.7% | 2013-05-21 | 2013-06-24 | 1 | 2013-10-17 | 4 | 5 | |
Aim Ways Odd-Stats Strategy took approximately 20 months on average to recover from major drawdowns of 20% or more. The largest drawdown reached -23.76% and the longest drawdown period lasted 33 months.