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The Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition, is an adaptation of the original Aim Ways Shield Strategy, with fewer assets, longer historical backtest, and easier replicability. The following changes where made:
The backtesting period is limited by the inception date of Nasdaq-100 (NASDAQ.X): Feb 5, 1971.
A quick overview of the assets within the portfolio, its performance and main metrics.
The portfolio consists of 5 asset classes.
| Name / Ticker | Type | Currency | Inception | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 (US Large Cap) SP500.X | Asset Class | USD | Jan 31, 1871 | 25% |
Gold GOLD.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1791 | 20% |
Intermediate-Term Treasury MTTREASURY.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1870 | 16% |
US Corporate Bonds CORPBONDS.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1870 | 24% |
Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ.X | Asset Class | USD | Feb 5, 1971 | 15% |
The backtest spans over a period of 55 years. With an annual return of 10.05% for Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition, the cumulative return over that period amounts to 18913%.
| Portfolio Score | Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition |
|---|---|
| Portfolio Score |
| Returns | Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition |
|---|---|
| Month-to-Date | -0.54% |
| Year-to-Date | 20.5% |
| 3M | 8.04% |
| 6M | 15.23% |
| Annualized Return (3Y) | 20.39% |
| Annualized Return (5Y) | 9.81% |
| Annualized Return (10Y) | 10.55% |
| Annualized Return (20Y) | 9.39% |
| Annualized Return (All, 54.7Y) | 10.05% |
| Risk | Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition |
|---|---|
| Annual Volatility | 8.44% |
| Max Drawdown | -24.45% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.18 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.71 |
| Adjusted Sortino Ratio | 1.21 |
With a projected annual return (CAGR) of 10.05% and an initial investment of $10,000, Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition would have the following projected capital growth over the next 50 years.
| Year | Starting Capital | Ending Capital | Total Gain | Avg Monthly Gain | Cumulative Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | $11,005 | $1,005 | $84 | 10.1% | |
| 5 | $16,142 | $17,764 | $1,622 | $135 | 77.6% |
| 10 | $26,056 | $28,674 | $2,619 | $218 | 187% |
| 15 | $42,058 | $46,285 | $4,227 | $352 | 363% |
| 20 | $67,889 | $74,712 | $6,823 | $569 | 647% |
| 50 | $1,200,888 | $1,321,577 | $120,689 | $10,057 | 13,116% |
A detailed look at the returns of the portfolio.
| Portfolio | All (54.7Y) | 20Y | 10Y | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition | 10.05% | 9.39% | 10.55% | 9.81% | 20.39% | 20.92% |
| Year | Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition |
|---|---|
| 1971 | 9.92% |
| 1972 | 18.87% |
| 1973 | 6.84% |
| 1974 | 0.94% |
| 1975 | 12.71% |
| 1976 | 15.57% |
| 1977 | 4.91% |
| 1978 | 11.42% |
| 1979 | 36.91% |
| 1980 | 15.84% |
| Portfolio | Positive Years | Negative Years | Positive Ratio | Best Return Years | Worst Return Years |
| Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition | 47 | 8 | 85.45% | 55 | 55 |
Let's analyze how much risk the portfoliohas.
A drawdown represents the period of decline an investor experiences between a portfolio's peak (new high) and its subsequent low, also known as the valley (before it begins to recover). The table below highlights the five largest drawdowns encountered by the portfolio.
| Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown | Start | Valley | # Months | End | # Months | # Months | Chart |
| -24.45% | 2008-05-21 | 2008-11-20 | 6 | 2009-10-07 | 11 | 17 | |
| -20.67% | 2021-12-28 | 2022-10-14 | 10 | 2023-12-13 | 14 | 24 | |
| -19.91% | 2000-03-27 | 2002-07-23 | 28 | 2003-10-21 | 15 | 43 | |
| -17.62% | 1980-01-22 | 1980-03-27 | 2 | 1980-09-04 | 5 | 7 | |
| -17.6% | 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-20 | 1 | 2020-05-29 | 2 | 3 | |
| -17.03% | 1974-03-25 | 1974-09-26 | 6 | 1975-05-12 | 8 | 14 | |
| -15.62% | 1987-08-26 | 1987-10-26 | 2 | 1989-05-12 | 19 | 21 | |
| -15.48% | 1980-11-21 | 1982-03-15 | 16 | 1982-09-03 | 6 | 21 | |
| -10.23% | 1973-06-06 | 1973-11-26 | 6 | 1974-01-24 | 2 | 8 | |
| -9.63% | 1998-07-21 | 1998-08-31 | 1 | 1998-11-06 | 2 | 4 | |
Aim Ways Shield Strategy: Simplified Edition took approximately 20 months on average to recover from major drawdowns of 20% or more. The largest drawdown reached -24.45% and the longest drawdown period lasted 43 months.