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The Fantastic 4 portfolio is a streamlined version of the Magnificent 7, focusing on top-performing tech giants NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Meta (META). It excludes Amazon, Tesla, and Apple due to their recent underperformance, highlighting companies that are currently driving innovation in AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors for stronger growth potential.
The backtesting period is limited by the inception date of Meta Platforms Inc. (META): May 18, 2012.
A quick overview of the assets within the portfolio, its performance and main metrics.
The portfolio consists of 4 stocks, which are all equally weighted.
| Name / Ticker | Type | Currency | Inception | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA (US67066G1040) | Stock | USD | Jan 22, 1999 | 25% |
Microsoft Corporation MSFT (US5949181045) | Stock | USD | Mar 13, 1986 | 25% |
Alphabet Inc. GOOG (US02079K1079) | Stock | USD | Aug 19, 2004 | 25% |
Meta Platforms Inc. META (US30303M1027) | Stock | USD | May 18, 2012 | 25% |
The backtest spans over a period of 13 years. With an annual return of 37.82% for Fantastic 4 (AI era), the cumulative return over that period amounts to 5432%.
| Portfolio Score | Fantastic 4 (AI era) |
|---|---|
| Portfolio Score |
| Returns | Fantastic 4 (AI era) |
|---|---|
| Month-to-Date | 4.82% |
| Year-to-Date | 73.08% |
| 3M | 7.38% |
| 6M | 22.85% |
| Annualized Return (3Y) | 28.66% |
| Annualized Return (5Y) | 44.37% |
| Annualized Return (10Y) | 40.12% |
| Annualized Return (All, 12.5Y) | 37.82% |
| Risk | Fantastic 4 (AI era) |
|---|---|
| Annual Volatility | 28.16% |
| Max Drawdown | -54.08% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.28 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.89 |
| Adjusted Sortino Ratio | 1.34 |
With a projected annual return (CAGR) of 37.82% and an initial investment of $10,000, Fantastic 4 (AI era) would have the following projected capital growth over the next 50 years.
| Year | Starting Capital | Ending Capital | Total Gain | Avg Monthly Gain | Cumulative Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | $13,782 | $3,782 | $315 | 37.8% | |
| 5 | $49,723 | $68,529 | $18,805 | $1,567 | 585% |
| 10 | $247,242 | $340,749 | $93,507 | $7,792 | 3,307% |
| 15 | $1,229,373 | $1,694,322 | $464,949 | $38,746 | 16,843% |
| 20 | $6,112,867 | $8,424,753 | $2,311,886 | $192,657 | 84,148% |
| 50 | $92,387,300,810 | $127,328,177,976 | $34,940,877,166 | $2,911,739,764 | 1,273,281,680% |
A detailed look at the returns of the portfolio.
| Portfolio | All (12.5Y) | 10Y | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fantastic 4 (AI era) | 37.82% | 40.12% | 44.37% | 28.66% | 74.52% |
| Year | Fantastic 4 (AI era) |
|---|---|
| 2012 | -3.77% |
| 2013 | 60.02% |
| 2014 | 22.99% |
| 2015 | 42.22% |
| 2016 | 63.31% |
| 2017 | 51.21% |
| 2018 | -8.89% |
| 2019 | 54.55% |
| 2020 | 57.25% |
| 2021 | 66.62% |
| Portfolio | Positive Years | Negative Years | Positive Ratio | Best Return Years | Worst Return Years |
| Fantastic 4 (AI era) | 10 | 3 | 76.92% | 13 | 13 |
Let's analyze how much risk the portfoliohas.
A drawdown represents the period of decline an investor experiences between a portfolio's peak (new high) and its subsequent low, also known as the valley (before it begins to recover). The table below highlights the five largest drawdowns encountered by the portfolio.
| Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown | Start | Valley | # Months | End | # Months | # Months | Chart |
| -54.08% | 2021-11-22 | 2022-11-03 | 11 | 2023-06-01 | 7 | 18 | |
| -32.27% | 2018-07-26 | 2018-12-24 | 5 | 2019-10-25 | 10 | 15 | |
| -31.95% | 2020-02-20 | 2020-03-16 | 1 | 2020-05-18 | 2 | 3 | |
| -18.71% | 2024-07-11 | 2024-08-05 | 1 | 2024-10-22 | 3 | 3 | |
| -16.02% | 2020-09-03 | 2020-09-23 | 1 | 2021-02-03 | 4 | 5 | |
| -14.26% | 2015-12-30 | 2016-02-09 | 1 | 2016-03-29 | 2 | 3 | |
| -12.63% | 2015-08-13 | 2015-08-25 | 0 | 2015-10-05 | 1 | 2 | |
| -12.33% | 2018-03-13 | 2018-04-06 | 1 | 2018-05-10 | 1 | 2 | |
| -12.26% | 2012-07-06 | 2012-11-13 | 4 | 2013-01-10 | 2 | 6 | |
| -11.21% | 2018-02-01 | 2018-02-08 | 0 | 2018-03-09 | 1 | 1 | |
Fantastic 4 (AI era) took approximately 12 months on average to recover from major drawdowns of 20% or more. The largest drawdown reached -54.08% and the longest drawdown period lasted 18 months.