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The Weird Portfolio, created by Value Stock Geek, combines principles of factor investing and risk parity to offer an unconventional asset allocation aimed at maximizing returns while minimizing market risk. Its structure consists of:
This mix of assets is designed to perform well across various economic environments without relying on predictions. Inspired by portfolios like Ray Dalio’s All Seasons and the Golden Butterfly, the Weird Portfolio aims to achieve stability while capturing value through small-cap stocks and strategic diversification.
The backtesting period is limited by the inception date of International Ex-Us Small Cap (INTLSMC.X): Dec 31, 1974.
A quick overview of the assets within the portfolio, its performance and main metrics.
The portfolio consists of 5 asset classes, which are all equally weighted.
| Name / Ticker | Type | Currency | Inception | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
US Small Cap Value USSMALLCAPV.X | Asset Class | USD | Jun 30, 1926 | 20% |
International Ex-Us Small Cap INTLSMC.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 31, 1974 | 20% |
Long Term Treasury LTTREASURY.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1870 | 20% |
US Real Estate (REIT) USREIT.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 31, 1971 | 20% |
Gold GOLD.X | Asset Class | USD | Dec 30, 1791 | 20% |
The backtest spans over a period of 50 years. With an annual return of 11.16% for Weird Portfolio, the cumulative return over that period amounts to 19525%.
| Portfolio Score | Weird Portfolio |
|---|---|
| Portfolio Score |
| Returns | Weird Portfolio |
|---|---|
| Month-to-Date | -0.53% |
| Year-to-Date | 10.4% |
| 3M | 1.45% |
| 6M | 6.48% |
| Annualized Return (3Y) | 0.92% |
| Annualized Return (5Y) | 5.9% |
| Annualized Return (10Y) | 5.9% |
| Annualized Return (20Y) | 7.77% |
| Annualized Return (All, 49.9Y) | 11.16% |
| Risk | Weird Portfolio |
|---|---|
| Annual Volatility | 9.09% |
| Max Drawdown | -36.2% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.21 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.74 |
| Adjusted Sortino Ratio | 1.23 |
With a projected annual return (CAGR) of 11.16% and an initial investment of $10,000, Weird Portfolio would have the following projected capital growth over the next 50 years.
| Year | Starting Capital | Ending Capital | Total Gain | Avg Monthly Gain | Cumulative Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | $11,116 | $1,116 | $93 | 11.2% | |
| 5 | $16,972 | $18,866 | $1,894 | $158 | 88.7% |
| 10 | $28,806 | $32,021 | $3,215 | $268 | 220% |
| 15 | $48,891 | $54,347 | $5,456 | $455 | 443% |
| 20 | $82,979 | $92,240 | $9,261 | $772 | 822% |
| 50 | $1,983,476 | $2,204,832 | $221,356 | $18,446 | 21,948% |
A detailed look at the returns of the portfolio.
| Portfolio | All (49.9Y) | 20Y | 10Y | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weird Portfolio | 11.16% | 7.77% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.92% | 19.92% |
| Year | Weird Portfolio |
|---|---|
| 1975 | 18.53% |
| 1976 | 23.53% |
| 1977 | 16.39% |
| 1978 | 19.53% |
| 1979 | 43.35% |
| 1980 | 16.61% |
| 1981 | -2.62% |
| 1982 | 22.32% |
| 1983 | 17.36% |
| 1984 | 5.24% |
| Portfolio | Positive Years | Negative Years | Positive Ratio | Best Return Years | Worst Return Years |
| Weird Portfolio | 43 | 7 | 86.00% | 50 | 50 |
Let's analyze how much risk the portfoliohas.
A drawdown represents the period of decline an investor experiences between a portfolio's peak (new high) and its subsequent low, also known as the valley (before it begins to recover). The table below highlights the five largest drawdowns encountered by the portfolio.
| Drawdown period | Recovery period | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown | Start | Valley | # Months | End | # Months | # Months | Chart |
| -36.2% | 2008-05-20 | 2009-03-09 | 10 | 2010-01-19 | 10 | 20 | |
| -24.83% | 2020-02-24 | 2020-03-18 | 1 | 2020-08-04 | 5 | 5 | |
| -24.66% | 2022-01-03 | 2022-10-20 | 10 | 2024-08-19 | 22 | 32 | |
| -19.49% | 1980-01-22 | 1980-03-31 | 2 | 1980-08-19 | 5 | 7 | |
| -16.03% | 1989-12-22 | 1990-10-16 | 10 | 1991-09-09 | 11 | 21 | |
| -12.84% | 1998-04-15 | 1998-09-01 | 5 | 2000-06-13 | 21 | 26 | |
| -12.25% | 1987-09-04 | 1987-11-10 | 2 | 1988-06-14 | 7 | 9 | |
| -11.87% | 2018-01-29 | 2018-12-24 | 11 | 2019-04-10 | 4 | 14 | |
| -11.71% | 2004-04-02 | 2004-05-10 | 1 | 2004-09-16 | 4 | 5 | |
| -11.58% | 1981-04-07 | 1982-06-28 | 15 | 1982-09-03 | 2 | 17 | |
Weird Portfolio took approximately 19 months on average to recover from major drawdowns of 20% or more. The largest drawdown reached -36.2% and the longest drawdown period lasted 32 months.